Market Analysis: Nearing the 17,000-17,500 TargetJune 26, 2014
DOW Target Increased to 18,000 by Year EndSeptember 19, 2014
Since my last update on 6-27-2014, the DOW reached my 2014 targeted range of 17,000-17,500 in early July. So far, the Dow has made the 2014 high and all time record high of 17,151. The Dow for the year is up about 1% as of today, but it continues to slowly move higher. The late July/early August correction of 4% is NOT the correction for which I have been issuing caution. Actually, this small correction has made me more bullish on the U.S. markets. I do not think the market is done “rallying”. Currently I see the market slowly moving back into my 17,000-17,500 range. The market should reach the upper end of my target of 17,500 by the middle of September. There are some monetary policy discussions occurring in Europe (similar to the US Federal Reserve easing programs) that, if approved, could adjust 2014 targets. Assuming my forecast remains on track, I will issue another communication in September. We have yet to reduce any risk in portfolios. In summary, it appears this rally will last into September, barring an escalation in any of the current international conflicts. I will issue my next update when the market is showing signs of either moving past my target range, or when I believe it is time to reduce risk.