The 17,000-17,500 Market Forecast Range

Market Analysis: Nearing the 17,000-17,500 Target
June 26, 2014
DOW Target Increased to 18,000 by Year End
September 19, 2014
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The 17,000-17,500 Market Forecast Range

Since my last update on 6-27-2014, the DOW reached my 2014 targeted range of 17,000-17,500 in early July.  So far, the Dow has made the 2014 high and all time record high of 17,151.  The Dow for the year is up about 1% as of today, but it continues to slowly move higher.  The late July/early August correction of 4% is NOT the correction for which I have been issuing caution.  Actually, this small correction has made me more bullish on the U.S. markets.   I do not think the market is done “rallying”.  Currently I see the market slowly moving back into my 17,000-17,500 range.  The market should reach the upper end of my target of 17,500 by the middle of September.  There are some monetary policy discussions occurring in Europe (similar to the US Federal Reserve easing programs) that, if approved, could adjust 2014 targets.   Assuming my forecast remains on track, I will issue another communication in September.  We have yet to reduce any risk in portfolios.  In summary, it appears this rally will last into September, barring an escalation in any of the current international conflicts.  I will issue my next update when the market is showing signs of either moving past my target range, or when I believe it is time to reduce risk.

Grady Gaynor
Grady Gaynor
Grady Gaynor is the President & CEO of Indie Asset Partners, and has over 25 years in the investment industry. His approach to portfolio management is guided by a set of criteria developed over his tenure to help his clients manage both bull and bear markets. Make sure to subscribe to Indie Asset's enewsletter to keep up to date on Grady’s latest posts.

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