In January, I issued our target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average to reach 17,000 to 17,500 in the first half of 2014. Many other people were calling for a correction in January. Our internal research did not agree with calling for any form of correction. So far, the Dow Jones has reached 16,978, so it is very close to our range.
Currently, I see the stock market slowly moving into the 17,000-17,500 range through the summer and reaching its apex around early August. Then, I see an ugly correction coming in the fall. By the first week or two of August, I will update our forecast to clients, as I am tracking two potential outcomes for the year end. I will detail the scenarios, both of which suggest a correction in the fall. The size of the correction will determine how much longer this bull market can last.