Market Analysis: Strike Two Against the Bull Market that Started in March of 2009

The stock market is trying to get new footing and rally. I recently discussed that we needed to see a September-October rally in order for the bull market to continue. Last year the market went through a 19% correction from May until late August; this year we have seen a repeat pattern. In 2010, the market started a rally in September that continued through January of 2011. Will that happen this time? So far, the rally has been choppy and questionable. When the market goes up 300 points in a day, it leaves investors caught on a roller coaster of emotions. One day you feel concerned (like today); the next day the market rips off a decent rally, and you feel relieved. Is this how you felt in 2001-2002…or 2008? This market continues to show signs of further breakdown ahead. Last year the federal reserve stepped in and announced “quantitative easing”. So far they have mentioned more easing, but have yet to provide direction to the markets. Strike Two would occur against the bull if the market does not have a sustainable rally past the 11,800-12,000 number on the DOW by October. If Strike Two occurs, I will communicate this to you, as well as what to look for in Strike Three.