Mid-Year 2013 Technical Market Forecast Update

In May we indicated that we should have a bump in our road to 15,700-16,300 in June or July.  This bump came in June with a 7.5% stock market correction.  We have had many corrections since the start of this bull market (March 2009), and all but one has stopped in the 4-10% range.  So, we see this current correction as normal in nature.  Looking forward, we believe the market will be more volatile during the next 6-8 months, as we approach our 15,700-16,300 price target on the DOW.

Currently the forecast is for a top of this bull market to be in February/March of 2014.  If anything changes in this outlook, we will update quickly.   The June correction appears to be over, and we should be slowly moving into the 15,700-16,300 range by late summer.  As mentioned, we do see a much bumpier ride through the end of the year.  Market volatility typically gets much stronger when we are at the end of a bull market.   As year-end approaches, we will provide more detail on what we see for 2014…2015.  There are some “cracks” starting to emerge in this market.  The Federal Reserve indicated that it will be tapering off its easing program in 2014.  Our technical basis for this up market is the easing program.  It continues to look like an “easing bubble”, which has a few more percentage points to the upside.  When it ends, we will enter a fiscal recession and a new bear market.

This short term correction appears to be coming to a close, and we, in baseball terms, now enter into the “top of the 9th” of this bull market.  The stock market should be net up in July-August, and we could possibly breach our low end target of 15,700 by the end of summer.  More later as we see it.