Market Analysis: The Bull’s Final RunOctober 30, 2015
The Nature of a Bear MarketJanuary 8, 2016
Research Update: 2015 appears to be ending on a flat to slightly negative note. I have indicated that the bull market is coming to a close. On our last blog release I lowered my final bull market target to 18,400-18,700, which was a change from being bullish to cautiously bullish. I also indicated that I did not see any signs that the bull market was over and that investors should stay the course (based on their risk tolerance). The stock market had a nice rally in November, but has stalled again in December. So what is in store for 2016?
I continue to believe the stock market is not done with equity returns for investors. 2015 was a pause in the final chapter of this bull market that started in 2009. A bull market’s final chapter can be quick or it can very slowly grind out to new highs. Although 2015 did not produce equity returns, and bonds returned a minimal return, I do see the start of 2016 maintaining a bullish bias. For the bull market to continue higher and last through 2016, the first three months are critical, and my range of 18,400-18,700 needs to be reached. A few weeks ago the Federal Reserve increased interest rates; we have witnessed volatility in stocks, but no stock sell offs (like we experienced in August). 17,500 on the DOW (as noted from past blog releases) continues to be of high importance. In past releases (June 12, 2015 and later) I indicated that the DOW needs to maintain this level and should not trade below this level for a “length of time”. A “length of time” is more than a week or two. In December we breached this level but have quickly rallied back above it. It appears that we will be slightly higher than 17,500 to close the year; I anticipate that early January should see buyers back in the stock market, with a rally ahead. Final bull market moves are difficult to monitor. At market tops, things appear to be fine with the economy (like today). Will the bull market come to a close in 2016, or will it last past the election and on into 2017? I will have more updates as we continue to monitor the US stock market.
Watch for the launch of our updated website for Indie Asset Partners, LLC in the first quarter of 2016. We wish you a Happy New Year, with many blessings to you and your family.