Market Analysis: IAP 2013 Technical OutlookJanuary 25, 2013
2013 Stock Market • Updated ForecastMay 10, 2013
In January, we issued our stock market outlook for 2013. At that time, we forecasted the market would reach 15,000 by the 4th quarter of 2013. The market has had a nice move with the Santa Claus Rally and the January Effect, as we anticipated in our December 2012 market update. On Thursday, March 14, 2013, the market already reached 14,500. A natural tendency on Wall Street is to raise targets. With 9 months of 2013 left, logic tells us we are going higher. We will adjust our targets when we reach 15,000.
I expect the market to turn dull the next 6 to 8 weeks and have a sideways or mild correction of 5 percent or so. As long as the market holds recent gains through April of this year, 15,000 should be reached by May/June. I would be surprised if we reach that level without a mild correction first.
We will give a 2013 uptrend target update when 15,000 on the DOW is reached. 2014 continues to concern me, and I believe it will be a time investors should be light on stocks.